The following comes to us from our good friend over at Irish Roundtable, JVH.
Over the last 4 days I've spent a sizable amount of time trying to educate myself on the BCS Title Game ticket situation. After 10+ hours of phone calls, hundreds of emails, and even more texts this is what I have learned:
40,000 ticket applications hit the ticket office the night of the USC game.
Notre Dame fielded 75,000 ticket applications in total - Assumption based on "1 in 15 to 1 in 20 odds in winning" quoted to me by someone close to the situation. There are 140,000 living alumni plus 8,000 current students plus subway alums who support the university so the 75,000 number is feasible.
Notre Dame received 17,000 tickets. 4,500 go to the band and the students.
More tickets to the faculty and staff. Big time donors will also eat into the into the number leaving an estimated 10,000 tickets for the lottery.
75,000 apps means there were requests for 150,000 tickets from ND alone. Assuming that 14/15 lose that means there are 140,000 people without tickets.
Now this is where a big assumption needs to be made. How many of those 140,000 will still make the trip without winning the lottery. I know more people going to Miami than not. What percentage of Irish fans do you know who already have flights and hotels booked? Assume 50% still make the trip.
That leaves 70,000 ND fans in Miami still looking for tickets. ND sent 35,000 fans to Ireland for the Navy game. So 70,000 is not a stretch.
17,000 tickets have already gone to ND.
Another 17,000 tickets will go to Georgia/Alabama
Sun Life Stadium holds 76,000
That leaves 42,000 seats* for 70,000 ticketless Irish fans in Miami.
AND I HAVEN’T EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR THE SEC FANS THAT ARE GOING TO WANT TO GO.
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that ticket prices are sure to go up. That all depends on people's price point. Ticket prices might stay here or even go down. It's not all about the number of people looking for tickets, it's more about what are they willing to pay.
Two big catalysts will drive demand higher. The certainty of Georgia or Alabama fans after the SEC game this Saturday. And the harsh truth many ND fans will face when they receive their lottery results. My feeling on ticket prices is that the risk to the high side is much greater than the risk to the downside.
*Miami Dolphin season ticket holders control roughly 30,000 tickets. These are the tickets that are offered through brokers right now. (Friendly PSA: if you know a Miami Dolphin season ticket holder call them now.)
@TheSubwayDomer @irishroundtable you are wrong about the Dolphins season ticket holders. Asked one of them, she said she doesn't get them.
@okerland @TheSubwayDomer does she have a PSL? It's the PSL people that have first right of refusal for the tickets.
@Irishroundtable @TheSubwayDomer not denying demand, but I tried the Dolphins ST option yesterday and she had no idea. Prob only PSLs
@okerland @TheSubwayDomer I know the 40k number is too high. There are 30k season ticket holders. Not sure on PSLs. Doesn't change demand